Brexit is a challenge without precedents that may produce big changes in British agriculture. The term agriculture not only describes farmers growing food crops but also processing, infrastructure, suppliers, sellers etc. that form a complex supply chain to UK consumers. All of these sectors will be affected when Brexit is executed and now there is the added possibility that the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

A significant main benefit of being part of the EU is free trade. Two thirds (£12bn) of the UK food exports go to the EU, and that export may be compromised with a no-deal Brexit.  Largely due to the UK climate, Britain also imports food, of which 70% currently comes from EU countries. No trade agreement might result in at least a temporally cessation of the trade of food – but whether this happens and the consequences remain unknown.

Another issue of concern, even  before Brexit is the lack of seasonal labour. Defra and the Home Office announced (September 6th 2018) that 2500 migrant workers would be allowed per year to work in the UK for a period of up to 6 months, but Scotland alone employs 10,000 seasonal workers every year for the soft fruit season, mainly from Bulgaria and Romania and so the new policy seems limited. Although the 2500 permits would only be available for non-European workers, the Migration Advisory Committee suggests that EU workers should be subject to the same visa regulations than non-EU migrants. The committee also suggested restricting the access for ‘lower-skilled workers’ in favour of higher ‘skilled workers’. For more on low vs high skilled workers click here.

Prime Minister Theresa May said in a Conservative Party conference in October 2016: ‘’for someone who finds themselves out of work or on lower wages because of low-skilled immigration, life simply doesn’t seem fair’’.  The Home Office published a report in 2014 (when the immigration numbers registered the highest levels) of the Impacts of migration on UK native employment. This report concluded that there was no effect on native-born workers from immigration. Rather, the evidence suggests that most immigrants, and in particular Europeans make a net contribution to taxes.

The NFU (National Farmers Union) published in May 2018  The Food Supply Chain Manifesto for a successful Brexit. In the manifesto, the members of the NFU share some objectives that the government should seek during the negotiation of the UK withdrawal. In this document, they identify 4 main topics; trade and labour guaranteeing tariff-free trades maintaining the continuity in the existing trade agreements, and avoiding the hard border in Northern Ireland and ensuring of an adequate supply of permanent and seasonal labour for the industry. Domestic agricultural policy to support farmers and contactors to have fair businesses (production, quality, environment, animal welfare…) and to uphold them to ensure stability and certainty during the process. Regulation ensures that once the UK has left the EU regulations are designed and implemented to guarantee the proper functioning of the British food supply.

Less than 25 days before the UK leaves,the no-deal Brexit is starting to unsettle the UK industry. About 30 organisations have signed a letter to Michael Gove raising their concern about the catastrophic impact of a no-deal Brexit. The authors articulate their frustration and lack of power to prevent a negative outcome saying ‘’Business throughout the UK food chain-and their trade associations- are now totally focused on working to mitigate the catastrophic impact of a no-deal Brexit’’.

None of the current options for British agriculture seems to have a positive perspective in the short term. Now it is just a matter of weeks before we see if the end is going to be bad… or worse….

Author: Felipe Becerra Sanchez

Please note all opinions in this blog are the opinions of Felipe Becerra Sanchez,  not necessarily the opinions of Taylorlab as a whole.